Can the Government Reopen and Shut Down Again

Reopening Has Begun. No One Is Sure What Happens Next.

The heated debate over when to restart the economy has obscured an issue that could prove just as thorny: How to do it.

Credit... Scott McIntyre for The New York Times

Published April 25, 2020 Updated May 15, 2020

The economy shut down almost overnight. It won't start back up that way.

Politicians and public health experts have sparred for weeks over when, and under what circumstances, to allow businesses to reopen and Americans to emerge from their homes. But another question could prove just as thorny — how?

Because the restart will be gradual, with certain places and industries opening earlier than others, it will by definition be complicated. The U.S. economy is a complex web of supply chains whose dynamics don't necessarily align neatly with epidemiologists' recommendations.

Georgia and other states are beginning the reopening process. But even under the most optimistic estimates, it will be months, and possibly years, before Americans again crowd into bars and squeeze onto subway cars the way they did before the pandemic struck.

"It's going to take much longer to thaw the economy than it took to freeze it," said Diane Swonk, chief economist for the accounting firm Grant Thornton.

And it isn't clear what, exactly, it means to gradually restart a system with as many interlocking pieces as the U.S. economy. How can one factory reopen when its suppliers remain shuttered? How can parents return to work when schools are still closed? How can older people return when there is still no effective treatment or vaccine? What is the government's role in helping private businesses that may initially need to operate at a fraction of their normal capacity?

South Carolina, for example, looks likely to be among the first states to allow widespread reopening of businesses. But if a manufacturer there depends on a part made in Ohio, where the virus is still spreading, it may not be able to resume production, regardless of the rules.

"We live in an economy where there are lots of interconnections between different sectors," said Joseph S. Vavra, an economist at the University of Chicago. "Saying you want to reopen gradually is more easily said than done."

Image

Credit... OK McCausland for The New York Times

The White House released a plan this month for a phased reopening of the economy, with restrictions easing as states meet public health benchmarks. States have begun to develop their own road maps. Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo of New York said Tuesday that parts of the state that had fewer coronavirus cases might be allowed to reopen more quickly than New York City and other hard-hit areas.

But those proposals are mostly rough schematics, leaving unanswered crucial questions about how the process will play out at the ground level. Those details may help determine whether the economy will bounce back relatively quickly once the pandemic ebbs or the United States will face a slow, painful turnaround, as it did after the last recession.

Under the White House's three-phase plan, many businesses will be allowed to open in the first phase. Schools and day care centers will need to wait for the next phase. That means that millions of working parents could be asked to return to their jobs before they have any way to take care of their children.

Mr. Vavra and two colleagues recently estimated that nearly one-third of U.S. households have a child under 14, and that more than one in 10 has no other adult in the household to help with child care. In addition, many reopening plans call for younger adults to return to work first, while people over 55, who are at greater risk of severe complications or death, stay home longer to avoid exposure. But younger adults are also more likely to have young children at home.

Then there is the public health threat: If states reopen their economies too quickly, or without the right precautions in place, that could lead to a renewed outbreak, with dire consequences for both safety and the economy.

"The biggest risk is that you open too fast, too broadly, and you have another round of infections, a second wave," said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Analytics. "That's the fodder for an economic depression. That would just completely undermine confidence."

Partial reopening may not work for everyone.

Image

Credit... Scott McIntyre for The New York Times

In the early phases of reopening, businesses will almost certainly be required to operate at reduced capacity to allow for greater social distancing. That will require changes for virtually all companies, but in many cases it won't present insurmountable hurdles.

Offices, for example, might operate in rotating shifts, with different departments coming in on different days and deep cleanings performed in between. In factories, production lines could be redesigned to allow more distance between workers and to reduce or eliminate contact between teams.

But other businesses could have a much harder time adapting. Most restaurants, for example, have tight profit margins even in the best of times. Operating at half capacity — or less — will mean losing money for many restaurants.

Listen to 'The Daily': Reopening, Warily

As restrictions ease in Louisiana, a restaurant owner in Baton Rouge talks about how the pandemic has affected her business and why the decision to reopen isn't an easy one.

transcript

transcript

Listen to 'The Daily': Reopening, Warily

Hosted by Michael Barbaro, produced by Clare Toeniskoetter, Daniel Guillemette and Annie Brown, and edited by Liz O. Baylen and Larissa Anderson.

As restrictions ease in Louisiana, a restaurant owner in Baton Rouge talks about how the pandemic has affected her business and why the decision to reopen isn't an easy one.

[music]

michael barbaro

From The New York Times, I'm Michael Barbaro. This is "The Daily."

When Louisiana's stay at home order expires today, restaurants across the state can begin allowing customers back inside at their own discretion. That decision now lies with restaurant owners, like Jasmine Lombrage.

It's Friday, May 15.

jasmine lombrage

Hello?

michael barbaro

Hi.

jasmine lombrage

Hi, how are you?

michael barbaro

Oh, good. You sound great right now.

jasmine lombrage

Wonderful, wonderful. Hi. I'm Jasmine Lombrage.

michael barbaro

Hi, Jasmine. I'm Michael Barbaro.

jasmine lombrage

Hi, nice — nice to meet you this way.

michael barbaro

Very nice to meet you this way. Where exactly am I reaching you?

jasmine lombrage

I am at the Bullfish Bar Plus Kitchen here in Baton Rouge, La.

michael barbaro

That's your restaurant?

jasmine lombrage

Yes.

michael barbaro

So how long have you lived in Baton Rouge?

jasmine lombrage

Me, personally, about 17 years. My husband has been here over 20 years. And we have two girls, two beautiful girls, Gaby — she's turning 11 next month — and we have our gorgeous Angelle. She's nine.

michael barbaro

How did you and your husband meet?

jasmine lombrage

[LAUGHS] It's an old love story. We met at school. I was in dental hygiene school, and he was in culinary school. And he was working at that cafeteria. My friends said that they have good food over there, and they wanted to go. And so we went over there, and he was a quiet guy in the corner doing his own thing. I said, excuse me, what do you have here that is good and healthy that I can eat? And he looks up, and he said, Nothing is good enough for you.

michael barbaro

Oh, jeez.

jasmine lombrage

And then I turned to walk away, and he said, But if you come back tomorrow, I'll make something for you.

michael barbaro

Mm-hmm.

jasmine lombrage

And I just kind of smiled and said, No, thank you. And I had a few friends who are like, Yes, we're coming back tomorrow. So the next day, he made something for me. He made stir fry, and my friends — I had one of my crazy friends. She said — I said, I'm not going to eat. I don't know if this guy is some kind of psycho or crazy and he's going to put something in my food. She's like, "Well, I'm going to eat. If nothing happens to me in a few minutes, then you — you can try it." So that's what happened. And he came back and asked, how was everything? I said, it was good. And then we started talking. Then — no then he said I'm going to be his wife, and I said, I'm sorry. That's not going to happen. You know, and he said, well, he's a praying man. He always gets his heart desire.

michael barbaro

[LAUGHS]

jasmine lombrage

Yes, 10 years later, we ended up married.

michael barbaro

So when you — when you two met, you were a dental hygienist student. He was training to be a chef.

jasmine lombrage

Yes.

michael barbaro

And so how did you end up in the food industry?

jasmine lombrage

Well, growing up, my mom always cooked, you know, for many people. So it was always a passion. I grew up cooking also with mom and just family and aunts. We just — that was just something we did. And then Angel, my husband, Chef Angel, my husband, you know, we — he was the executive corporate chef that started Voodoo BBQ & Grill, which is a restaurant here in the South. And he was known as the Pitmaster. And so what we did, we started Jazz City then, Jazz City was a catering company. And we were — he was like, well, this is what I love to do. And we wanted to do something — we have two young kids. We know that, you know, you can work hard for anyone and everyone, but really, if you want to leave that — create something for your family, you need to create something so that it can stay down and passed down for generations and generations and possibly grow. And that is our goal is to have it grow and flourish. And we ended up here at the Bullfish, and Bullfish was already — it was a restaurant previously owned by someone else. And when we came here, we made it our own by bringing new menu items. And this is the only place you can come in Louisiana and find an authentic Caribbean and Southern fusion cuisine. What he's done, what Chef has mastered, he's taken the fresh herbs that we have in the Caribbean, and then he's merged it with the wonderful spices that we have here in Louisiana. And he — there's a fusion of jerk, fish, and Southern barbecue shrimp.

michael barbaro

Mm.

jasmine lombrage

Yes. And the paella — you know, Chef makes a paella with — you know, he uses scallops. And the crawfish, which is from Louisiana, he infuses that with the andouille sausage, and then he puts the shrimp in there and the crab meat. And so it's just the different twist that he puts on all of the dishes. It's just magic in your mouth.

michael barbaro

Mm.

jasmine lombrage

And I don't know if you heard the music in the background a little. We kind of use a lot of Caribbean kind of music from different parts of the Caribbean, and we play different music from here. The vibe is just so, I don't need a passport, but I can get away here. Does that makes sense?

michael barbaro

Mm-hmm. It's funny you keep calling your husband "chef." Is that how you refer to him?

jasmine lombrage

At work, we keep it professional. At home, well, when we get in a car, it's "honey." But when we're at work, we refer to each other — I refer to him as Chef, and he would just say whatever he had to say to me or, OK, yes, ma'am, and that would be it.

michael barbaro

Got it.

jasmine lombrage

Yes.

michael barbaro

And when did you take over the restaurant?

jasmine lombrage

That was last year, 2019, May 22, 2019.

michael barbaro

OK. So just about — just about a year ago.

jasmine lombrage

Yes. And this restaurant, the Bullfish, it is personal for us, because our home is connected to the Bullfish.

michael barbaro

Huh.

jasmine lombrage

Yes. So that's why this pandemic — I personally have spent many nights not sleeping, because I know our home is connected to it. It's not like we have 5, 6, 7, 20 locations. This is all we have. In our home, we have two kids. My daughter, my oldest, Gaby, she's autistic. I don't know — I mean, I don't know what's going to happen, but for now, she's depending on us to care for her. So as she grows, the home is — before we committed our home to the Bullfish — was part of the security blanket that we had. In the event something happened, she would have that.

michael barbaro

Tell me what you mean when you say that your home is connected to Bullfish. You mean physically or emotionally or what?

jasmine lombrage

Well, whenever you get a loan, you have to give some kind of guarantee, like a personal guarantee. And that's what we did, you know. We took that leap of faith and decided that we were going to put 100 percent in here to make it work. So we have to make the Bullfish work.

michael barbaro

So if something were to happen to the restaurant, it would mean potentially losing your home?

jasmine lombrage

Yes.

michael barbaro

And it sounds like that house is something you plan on passing on to your daughter, who's autistic.

jasmine lombrage

Yes, well, both of our girls, but we know her, at least, we can have somewhere for her in case she needed somewhere to be, and then we can have that there for her. That is something that always gets me emotional talking about, because —

michael barbaro

Mm-hmm.

jasmine lombrage

[CRYING] I'm sorry.

michael barbaro

I understand.

jasmine lombrage

It's — you know, and she's standing in front of me looking at me now. And we want to do whatever it takes to make it work.

You know, we just have to make it work. So when this pandemic started, it really gave us a scare, because if we're not able to pay for everything, and we default on our loan, well, we understood the consequences, you know.

michael barbaro

Was there a moment when you felt that you had really kind of made it with this place, having bought it and started to make it your own?

jasmine lombrage

Yes. About a month before the pandemic, we were like, yeah, this was a good choice. My husband and I, we usually go to early morning service for church, and afterwards, we came here for brunch. And then before we were open, we had people waiting outside for us.

michael barbaro

Wow.

jasmine lombrage

It was wonderful. And we were like, OK, wow, this is really going to work. This is really working. And wow, honey, this is our baby, and we're going to grow it, and we're going to be able to pay up the loan, and we're going to be able to just blow this thing out of the park. And then the pandemic started. And yes.

michael barbaro

When did you first start to notice that the pandemic was impacting the restaurant?

jasmine lombrage

OK, early March — early March, because it was February was good with Valentine's Day. Early March is when everything started changing, and as March went on, the governor shut down the state. This is when, you know, you started losing staff members saying they're not coming out. I mean, you cannot blame them. We also started doing curbside delivery, and we were doing social media posts and putting up signs, handwritten signs offering discounts, letting people know that curbside pickup is available, just getting different yard signs made.

michael barbaro

So you have to put up signs in the windows or outside telling people, we're still around, you just need to call in.

jasmine lombrage

Yes, yes, yes. And then about maybe the second week after the state was closed, we would be lucky if we got two people that would call for curbside pickup. And we would just be sitting here the entire day, 11 to 8, and there's no one that would come by or no one that would call. So then I started calling the restaurant phone a couple of times to make sure the phone was working, because it never rang. We were there for hours.

michael barbaro

So you called the restaurant's main number with your cell phone just to see if it was working.

jasmine lombrage

Yes. [LAUGHS]

michael barbaro

Wow

jasmine lombrage

And, you know, I started reaching out to third party — third party delivery providers to see if I can sign up with them, like Uber Eats and Waitr and DoorDash and ChowNow. And they're charging — some of them are charging from 25 percent to 35 percent.

michael barbaro

Per order?

jasmine lombrage

Yeah, that's your food costs. Yes. You know, in addition to that, we're not able to buy in bulk anymore, because we've wasted so much food. We've thrown away so much stuff, so now we're having to go ourselves, Chef and I, to different mom and pop stores that are open, and we're having to purchase items. Of course, now you're paying more money for them, because you're not buying the same quantity anymore, and you're buying from a local retailer. So, you know, and then we have a bar here, and we weren't — no one was coming out to drink anymore, so that went away. So yeah, the pandemic, you know, it's been hard on us.

michael barbaro

Mm-hm. I'm so sorry.

jasmine lombrage

Yes.

michael barbaro

So with these delivery apps, these new sources of orders, how much money do you make off of any individual customer percentage-wise?

jasmine lombrage

Right now, you don't, because the fact that we're buying things from not just local distributors but smaller volume — we're buying things in smaller volume, so our profit margin is smaller. So we're basically not making anything. You're keeping the doors open, but you're not making anything from it.

michael barbaro

Can you give us a sense of where your daughters have been throughout this period? At what point was their schooling interrupted?

jasmine lombrage

Maybe March. Angelle, when did school close? March or April?

angelle lombrage

[FAINT] It closed in March.

jasmine lombrage

OK, school closed in March.

michael barbaro

Mm-hmm.

jasmine lombrage

I used to bring my — I still do bring my two girls, so I can homeschool them, because school — they are out of school. So I use a corner of the restaurant, and I do schooling there for my girls. But it was a challenge. The change was not welcomed and open for the girls, especially my oldest, Gaby.

michael barbaro

What do you mean?

jasmine lombrage

You know, with autism, everything has to be — you need to have something — everything scheduled and everything has a plan you need to follow through. And this whole pandemic kind of just went haywire for her in the beginning. She was not sleeping. She was more agitated. And my youngest, Angelle, she kept saying she wanted to go back to school, so I had to find other ways to help them. So —

michael barbaro

And Jasmine, I think I hear your daughters in the background. Is that right?

jasmine lombrage

Yes, you do.

michael barbaro

Do you think there was a point where your daughters picked up on what has been happening for you and your husband, but beyond the stresses that they're experiencing, you know, from not being at school and social distancing, that they understood that you and your husband are struggling with this business and struggling financially?

jasmine lombrage

I think so. There is one incident. My daughter, my youngest, she — you know, she gets allowance, and someone gives her money or whatever. And she saved the money, and one day, she wrote a note. And then she left a note on the bed, on my bed. I was taking a bath, and I came out, and she had a note saying that, Mom, I know you and Dad are working really hard, and things are really tough. I have some money saved. I hope this helps for you to pay for stuff.

michael barbaro

Oh, wow.

jasmine lombrage

Yes. That was hard. That was hard.

michael barbaro

How old is this daughter who left you —

jasmine lombrage

Angelle was 8 when she did that. She just turned 9 in April. So she had a pandemic birthday.

michael barbaro

Can I ask how much she gave you?

jasmine lombrage

I think it was like $57 she had.

michael barbaro

Wow.

And what did you do with it?

jasmine lombrage

I still have it saved.

I still have it there. I try not to use it. It was just such a touching moment, and just to see, you know, that they realize, kids realize more than you let them know. And knowing that they're here like almost every single day with me, and —

michael barbaro

They see everything.

jasmine lombrage

Yes.

michael barbaro

How bad are things, financially speaking, right now?

jasmine lombrage

Not close at all to where we want to be. Not good at all. Not good at all. We have applied for a lot of, you know, small business loans, and we're just waiting to hear back.

michael barbaro

Have you been able to cover all the payments that you owe to the bank?

jasmine lombrage

I haven't. I think finance is one of the things people don't like to talk about, but I haven't been able to meet a lot of — I had to ask for abatements. So we'll see what happens.

michael barbaro

Mm-hmm.

I mean, do you think there is a situation that you could imagine using that money from your youngest daughter, that $57?

jasmine lombrage

I don't want to — I don't want to, because it's hers. Even though she gave it to me, it's hers. I do not want — I don't want to.

michael barbaro

Right.

jasmine lombrage

I —

I'm just afraid to — I'm just afraid to even think about a situation like that.

[music]

michael barbaro

We'll be right back.

Jasmine, for listeners who don't know what the rules are in Louisiana, what was announced earlier this week?

jasmine lombrage

Well, restaurants — commencing Friday, you can, restaurants can be open for 25 percent of the capacity.

michael barbaro

So you can seat up to 25 percent of what would normally fit inside the restaurant. So how many people do you think that is?

jasmine lombrage

Well, we can seat about 90 people comfortably in here. And so about 25 percent of that now is what we're allowed to do.

michael barbaro

So if you can only put, you know, 20 or so people inside, can you make money?

jasmine lombrage

I don't see how that's going to happen, to be honest with you, because 20 percent — having 20 percent of people inside the business is not enough to sustain, and I don't know how long that's going to go on for.

michael barbaro

Right.

jasmine lombrage

So [SIGHS] it's hard. It's a hard thing to digest right now.

michael barbaro

But you have decided that you're going to let people back inside?

jasmine lombrage

Honestly, me, personally, no. So it is still an open debate. We — actually, after I'm done with this interview, we're going to sit down and weigh our options, the pros and the cons, and see if it's something that we want to do.

michael barbaro

Can I ask you what you see as the cons and the pros?

jasmine lombrage

Yeah, the pros — that, you know, we'll have 25 percent more revenue than what we're seeing now. And then the cons is knowing that someone will — I'm afraid that, oh, my god, somebody's going to come out, and they're a carrier of Covid-19, and they infect somebody else. So I have no way of controlling that.

michael barbaro

Have you heard from customers about their opinions on whether it's time to go back inside the restaurant?

jasmine lombrage

Yes, I have. I've had mixed reviews. We tend to ask customers, whenever they're picking up or, are they ready for everything to open back up. That's normally the question we would ask. And I feel that I'm getting more nos than yes, though, in my opinion.

michael barbaro

Mm.

jasmine lombrage

Yes.

michael barbaro

Those who have told you, Jasmine, that they do want to come out, what did they say is their reason for wanting to come out, to come back and eat in a restaurant?

jasmine lombrage

They want to get out of the house. You know, sometimes it's just the fact that you cannot do something makes you want to do it.

michael barbaro

[LAUGHS] Yes. Yes, the forbidden fruit. Yes.

jasmine lombrage

Yes. My point, that's exactly. Like, oh, you tell me I cannot eat this? OK, I'm going to. So yes, that's what I feel I'm getting.

michael barbaro

I wonder, for you, if you didn't run a restaurant, would you go out and eat right now? Would you walk into a restaurant, sit down, order food?

jasmine lombrage

I would probably go out on a weekday, because weekdays are usually less busy, because I have a child that has a compromised immune system. So I'm usually very careful to go out. I don't want to take something home to her, so that would be another reason that I personally will not go out. And if I did go out, minus my daughter's situation, I would have definitely found the seat — ask to be seated in the area that is far away from everybody else.

michael barbaro

I mean it's interesting to hear you say that, that you wouldn't want to go to a restaurant unless it was specifically at a slow time because of the health of your daughter, because you're talking about yourself reopening a restaurant. So it's quite a weird conundrum.

jasmine lombrage

Yes, but it's honest.

michael barbaro

I just want to make sure I understand which of your daughters is immunocompromised.

jasmine lombrage

Gaby is.

michael barbaro

Is that the daughter who is autistic?

jasmine lombrage

Yes, because she was a former premature baby. I ruptured at 14 weeks when I was pregnant with her, and she had a lot of health challenges. They said, you know, that Gaby would never walk, talk, see, or hear. She was not via — she does not have any viability of life, and that she would never make it out of the hospital alive, you know. We were told that we were making a mistake for her. She coded, and it was even pronounced, and she came back. And she had a trach before, and she was on a ventilator before. She was on oxygen for the first — almost the first four years of her life. You know, she started talking late, walking late, and she had to do therapy, and, you know, she had a walker. So she had a lot of challenges to see where she is now and where she came from. So I'm always careful, you know. A typical cold for you and I is just a cold, but for her, it can lead to pneumonia, or we've lost her. We've had her stop breathing a couple times, and nothing —

I don't even know how to explain that.

michael barbaro

Mm. Given your daughter's health, are you worried that you're going to basically be in the kind of situation it sounds like you're afraid of kind of all the time, because people are going to be coming into your restaurant, and they could potentially get you sick, and you could potentially get your daughter sick?

jasmine lombrage

Yes. You know, I don't know what I would do if I find myself bringing something to my child. So I find myself in a very difficult position as a business owner.

michael barbaro

That would be very hard to live with. I understand.

jasmine lombrage

That would — yes. You know —

michael barbaro

I mean, it sounds — it sounds like that —

jasmine lombrage

[SIGHS]

michael barbaro

— that has to — that has to be weighing on you as you're making this decision.

jasmine lombrage

Yes, it is. It is. It is. This is personal. This is not like, oh, OK, well, I'm just going to open and make the money. It's not that situation for me. I have to be careful for it. I am responsible for her, and I'm also responsible for my customers, making sure they have the best experience. And I'm also responsible for my team that are coming to work. So —

michael barbaro

And you're also responsible for that house —

jasmine lombrage

Yes!

michael barbaro

— that is connected to this —

jasmine lombrage

Right!

michael barbaro

— restaurant.

jasmine lombrage

Yes.

michael barbaro

Yeah.

jasmine lombrage

So my hands are tied. Like, yes. It — yes, I'm just — I'm just in a bind.

Yeah, I'm just in a bind right now. And say hi, Gaby.

gaby lombrage

Hi.

michael barbaro

Hi, Gaby.

jasmine lombrage

Say hi. It's OK.

gaby lombrage

Hi.

michael barbaro

Oh, I want to see you on the video. Nice to meet you, Gaby.

jasmine lombrage

Can you see her? I don't know how this works.

michael barbaro

Mm-hmm. I can see her. Yeah, she's got a great — she's got a leopard patterned sweater on.

jasmine lombrage

Yes. Are you going to talk?

gaby lombrage

Hi.

michael barbaro

Hi. Gaby is waving.

gaby lombrage

How are you doing?

michael barbaro

I'm doing well. Your mom was just telling us about you.

She — she loves you.

jasmine lombrage

Yes. [LAUGHS] Yes.

michael barbaro

She loves you — she loves you very much.

jasmine lombrage

I do. I love you, Gab.

gaby lombrage

I love you, too.

jasmine lombrage

OK.

michael barbaro

Well, that was — that was a nice gift.

jasmine lombrage

Yes, she walked up, so. [SIGH] I'm sorry.

michael barbaro

Yeah, just give me a sec. Oof.

jasmine lombrage

I'm sorry. I didn't mean that —

michael barbaro

No, I —

jasmine lombrage

Hence the reason why I'm torn up. For someone that was 1 pound, 3 ounces when she was born, she is like — she's like — I mean she's beautiful. She's doing so well. And then this is so scary.

michael barbaro

Yeah.

jasmine lombrage

This is so scary, you know. And then it's a hard decision. I — we don't open up, then to get customers to come in, we're putting our house more at risk. We open up, and then something happens, then I'm putting my child's life at risk. I don't want — I don't even want to be me right now.

michael barbaro

Yep.

I'm going to be really eager — we're all going to be very eager to understand what decision you make. And I want you to know that we really enjoyed getting to know you and talking to you, and we're rooting for you and for your family.

jasmine lombrage

Thank you. Thank you so very much. Thank you.

michael barbaro

Thank you, and please give our best to your husband and to the rest of your family.

jasmine lombrage

Thank you.

gaby lombrage

Bye.

jasmine lombrage

Gaby says bye.

michael barbaro

Bye, Gaby.

jasmine lombrage

Say bye.

gaby lombrage

Bye.

jasmine lombrage

OK, thank you, guys.

michael barbaro

Bye.

[music]

michael barbaro

On Thursday night, after we spoke, Jasmine, her husband, and their staff decided that they would reopen their restaurant for indoor dining, starting on Tuesday. We'll be right back.

[music]

michael barbaro

Here's what else you need to know today.

archived recording (rick bright)

Good morning, Chairwoman Eshoo and Ranking Member Burgess and distinguished members of the subcommittee. I am Dr. Rick Bright, a career public servant, and a scientist who has spent 25 years of my career focused on addressing pandemic outbreaks.

michael barbaro

In testimony, before the House on Thursday, a whistleblower, who was fired as head of a federal research agency, said that the Trump administration failed to heed his warnings about the shortage of medical supplies in the national stockpile and that Americans died as a result.

archived recording (rick bright)

Congresswoman, we've known for quite some time that our stockpile is insufficient in having those critical personal protective equipment. So once this virus began spreading, it became known to be a threat, I began pushing urgently in January, along with some industry colleagues as well, and those urges, those alarms were not responded to with action.

michael barbaro

His testimony marked the first time that a federal scientist has gone before Congress and openly accused the Trump administration of endangering American lives by bungling its response to the coronavirus.

archived recording (rick bright)

Without better planning, 2020 could be the darkest winter in modern history.

michael barbaro

And Republican Senator Richard Burr of North Carolina, the chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, temporarily stepped down on Thursday amid an F.B.I. investigation into whether he sold hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of stocks using nonpublic information about the coronavirus that he learned during a Senate briefing. Over the past few days, the F.B.I. has seized Burr's cell phone and searched his electronic records, suggesting that Burr may be in serious legal jeopardy.

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"It's impossible in the restaurant business to be profitable at a 50 percent revenue clip," said Alex Smith, president of the Atlas Restaurant Group, which operates upscale establishments in Baltimore, Houston and other cities.

For restaurants that were struggling before the shutdown, or that weren't yet established enough to turn a profit, owners could decide that restocking kitchens and redesigning dining rooms to allow for social distancing is not worth the expense.

"If you were profitable before and your business was growing, then you need to hold tight and hope that there's light at the end of the tunnel and things will come back," Mr. Smith said. But if you were losing money before, "you really have to ask yourself, are you digging a deeper hole?"

Confidence is crucial.

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Credit... OK McCausland for The New York Times

The public debate has focused on government mandates: When should city and state shutdown orders be lifted? But just because businesses are allowed to reopen doesn't mean that they will or, if they do, that customers will return.

Data from OpenTable, the restaurant reservation service, shows that people largely stopped eating out even before governors and mayors recommended doing so, and well before official shutdown orders took effect. Evidence from Sweden and other countries that have avoided formal lockdowns likewise shows that people have sharply reduced their activities even without government mandates.

"I don't think it was really the government shutdown orders that shut down the economy — I think it was the virus that shut down the economy," Mr. Vavra said. "Saying the economy is now opened is just lip service. The economy's not going to be reopened until people want it to reopen."

So far, there is little evidence that the public is ready. Despite scattered protests, surveys show widespread support for shutdown orders and little appetite for a rapid return. A recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll found that most Americans were more worried about lifting restrictions too early than keeping them in place too long.

"There's no restaurateur in the country that believes that when the government says 'Go,' the restaurants will be packed again," Mr. Smith said.

Mr. Smith's greatest fear, he said, is that Americans will rush back to daily life too quickly, resulting in another flare-up and another lockdown. He can borrow money and reach into savings to reopen once, he said. A second time could be too much to manage, especially because a false start could leave customers even more wary.

"What scares most of us is Wave 2," he said.

The government's role isn't finished.

The federal government has already spent extraordinary amounts to keep individuals and businesses afloat during the economic shutdown. Congress approved another half-trillion-dollar aid package in recent days, with more help expected in coming weeks.

But economists say the government's role is only beginning. Businesses will need help weathering a period of reduced sales. State and local governments will need help, too, or they will have to cut programs to offset a sharp drop in tax revenue. Individuals will need unemployment benefits, food assistance and other aid to make ends meet in a recession that will almost certainly outlast the pandemic.

The scope of those problems isn't yet clear. No one knows how many businesses have failed permanently, rather than shut down temporarily, or how many laid-off workers will be able to return to their old jobs. But the longer the shutdown lasts, the more permanent the damage will be, and the slower the rebound.

"You can press pause for a period of time, but not too long before that becomes bad loans and defaults and so on," said Shubham Singhal, a senior partner at McKinsey, the consulting firm. "Then you have the negative cycle that feeds on itself for a while."

The good news is that the government mostly knows how to deal with that kind of problem. Unlike the current shutdown, which required policymakers to develop programs in record time, the post-pandemic period will probably resemble a more traditional recession and demand more conventional policy responses.

The bad news is that, historically, political will for these programs has ended long before the need for them. After the last recession, calls to rein in jobless benefits began while the unemployment rate was still close to 10 percent.

Elizabeth Ananat, a Barnard College economist who studies poverty and inequality, said she worried that government support would again dry up before the economy was ready to sustain itself, prolonging the downturn and hurting lower-income families, who are typically the last to benefit from a recovery.

"In some ways, I'm even more anxious about the reopening than I am about the shutdown," she said.

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Source: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/25/business/economy/coronavirus-economy-reopening.html

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